Monday, April 19, 2010

Election projections: hung parliament?

Courtesy of BBC's polling efforts, here are some visuals of the situation. The first graph is the result of the 2005 election (a Labour victory) just to show you what ground each party has to cover and what a clear victory looks like.
(blue=Tories; red=Labour; yellow=LibDems; grey=all other parties)
The next graph is what the BBC calls the "poll of polls" where they combine all polls for the day (18 April) to represent what would happen if people voted this way on May 6.
Since no one would have a clear majority, they'd have what they call a hung parliament. It's an absolutely fascinating situation, and I'd be on the edge of my seat to see how it's handled. There are basically 2 or 3 options. First, the incumbent PM would stay in power, but he obviously doesn't have enough power in Parliament to pass anything. Or the party with the most votes can try to come up with a coalition government by making deals and concessions with smaller parties.
The other option is that Parliament would again be dissolved and another election held. But that's unlikely to result in a different outcome than this election.

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